Forecast 2009 (Part 2)

With danger comes the opportunity to overcome it. This is a reminder for entrepreneurs this 2009.

What follows are more opportunities Filipino entrepreneurs can exploit, thereby helping the country surge forward, despite the hurdles ahead.

The Power of (Inter)Connection

Despite the Economic Storm, the Internet will continue to evolve, and remain the best and cheapest medium, from advertising to e-commerce to research and informtion to entertainment, even personal publishing (e.g., blogs).

Evidence of its tenacity is exhibited by emerging trends, like e-health – generally, online healthcare practice. US giant Wal-mart has already adopted the technology, creating a company network that provides physicians employee health records, as insurance reference.

E-health can advance Philippine healthcare through say, online personal health record databases accessible to patients via password (thereby ensuring doctor-patient confidentiality). And coupled with web access expansion to rural areas, more Filipinos could obtain proper medical treatment from the best urban hospitals.

A partnership between the DOTC and Japan’s Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communication (MIC) is already seeking to boost broadband penetration in rural Philippines. Incidentally, Obama announced similar plans to boost US broadband penetration, proving that the sentiment is spreading globally.

The digital age has come. And the possibilities are too great for us to ignore.

“If You Lived Here, You’d Be Home By Now”

A large market – and larger promises – awaits our tourism industry in 2009, and beyond.

Aging Baby Boomers seek to stay younger. Our balmy shores in the Visayas or Northern Luzon can cater to this need, through slices of tropical “healing” paradise (in say, Ayala and SM Prime Holdings real-estate developments), and adventure through ecotourism in places like Batanes, Camiguin, and Palawan.

Also: belt-tightening is beginning to take over China. Consumer spending has slowed, causing corporate cost-cuttings, triggering massive layoffs. A Chinese shoe manufacturing company, after seeing orders tumble from 9.3 million (2007) to 7 million (2008), reduced its workforce by 22%.

Chinese are seeking lower costs of living; perhaps, that’s where we can come in.

Consider the surge in Korean tourists: 2005-2007 experienced an 87% increase in Korean tourists who acknowledge the Philippines’ cheaper education, recreation, and investment opportunities. South Koreans composed 20% of 2007 tourist arrivals; by March 2008, 75,000 Koreans are studying here.

Unleashing our tourism potentials can make us a prime destination - for aging Baby Boomers worldwide, or anyone seeking a cheaper, comfortable shelter from the Economic Storm.

Building Tomorrow

As the Financial Crisis rages, our export earnings, which at $42.8 billion from Jan-Oct 2008 contributed 37% of the $115.4 billion Q1-Q3 GDP, are expected to decline, as our export destinations’ economies weaken. The US, our top importer (16%) expects a 1.4% 2009 GDP drop; Japan (15.5%) expects a 1.9% slowdown; China (11.5%), by at least 8%; and Hong Kong (10%), by 1.2%.

We need to decrease dependence on merchandise exports. Responding to this urgency, the government has declared a P177-billion 2009 budget allocation to infrastructure development, specifically the construction of farm-to-market roads that, while providing farmers access to urban markets, interconnect with other roads and bridges, improving accessibility, helping alleviate more farmers from poverty, and generating 540,000 jobs.

Focus is also needed towards exporting service: Philippine Expats (as the DFA recently announced a continued international demand, quelling layoff fears) and BPOs which, together with tourism, can drive the 2009 Philippine economy.

Rebuilding the Future

The US is suffocating from the chokehold not just of the recession, but of its $10.6-trillion national debt. Of its estimated $14.3-trillion end-2008 GDP, 3% may go to interest payment. Ironically, Obama’s plans to increase consumer spending, in hopes of improving the economy, could raise debt by $2 trillion this year – further threatening the US dollar’s value, and businesses’ financial buoyancy.

By mid-2009, foreign taipans could be purchasing choice US companies and real estate, as stock and land values further drop - presenting Philippine entrepreneurs viable opportunities.

For instance, perhaps our BPO companies can set their sights on shares of businesses lining Silicon Valley, outstripping the industry’s predicted 2009 growth slowdown (20-30%, from 2008’s over-30%) due to the US recession, and quelling threats of the US halting outsourced employment.

The Philippines experiences economic stability through core competencies (e.g., gold and copper mining company Philex Mining is Asia’s second-fastest growing small company) and confident, competent leadership (our President spearheaded the ASEAN+3, a joint fund by Southeast Asian nations, with Japan, China, and South Korea – a regional cushion against the Global Economic Crisis’ threats). Joining the world in obtaining, and thereby buttressing US companies, would promote worldwide cooperation to reestablish a failing US economy, whose power will consequently re-fuel the global economy.

2009 won't be easier. It’s the Chinese Year of the Ox: assumed ultimately successful, but through hard, plodding, incessant laboring. We must keep pulling our own weight, and make headway, at whatever pace.