BOOM IN GLOOM

APOCALYPSE NOW?

In 1972, the Club of Rome predicted that the world's natural resources would soon run out. Al Gore's exposition of global warming effects also indicates that some 'tipping point' will usher globally cataclysmic floods and pestilence. Heralds of the Christian Apocalypse, it seems the end is nigh.

So fears of a New Order without enough food and energy for 7 billion have led to surging food prices; and the “shortage” – perceived or actual – elicited various reactions, from riots to countries' preemptive stockpiling, each worsening the situation. Developed countries are shifting to food – based fuels, decreasing oil demand and emissions, but further depleting grain stocks.

Consider however, a 1890 futurist's projection: by the 1930's, New York City would be uninhabitable, as the transportation requirement for a projected 40 year population increase of 4 – 7 million, would generate three-story piles of horse manure. Henry Ford's 1908 “Model T” eventually turned that thought into...a load of crap.

APOCALYPSE WHEN?

This illustrates man's capability to prevail over the four horsemen's evil gifts. For his indomitable human spirit lets him evolve solutions – using creativity, technology, and instinct.

Take energy issues. Oil prices and emissions concerns have led to a burgeoning “New World Energy Order,” lessening the world's fossil fuel addiction. China's 11th Five Year Plan aims to reduce energy demands per unit of GDP by 20%, by 2010. Translation: Higher utilization, lower emissions.

Canada (using shale oil) is becoming the new 'Saudi Arabia,' increasing oil production from, currently, 1.5MM barrels/day to 5MM, all for the US.

New refineries, operational within 30 months, have producers like Russia and Sudan aggressively establishing European and Asian supply lines.

It's like a self-adjusting invisible hand, masking supply-demand imbalances, and incidentally exposes how Entreprenomists' reactions manifest that human spirit: creating boom amidst gloom.

THE RIGHT APOCALYPTIC MINDSET

Perhaps the best antidote to the numbing fear of impending doom is Entreprenomist's optimism and creativity.

A Columbia University study conducted over 23 years with 7,000 US companies, showed that 73% of them started with less than USD100,000 (probably equivalent to P450,000 in the Philippine setting). Of them, 12% attribute success to extraordinary ideas, while 88%, to the exceptional execution of ordinary ideas.

Being an entrepreneur isn't as risky as everyone thinks – all they really lose is a little time, some family money, and credit card charges. “It is this lack of risk (conservativeness, after success) that hurts growth.” In this gloomy environment, what the Filipinos need isn't more capital. It's drive and innovation in the exceptional execution of ordinary ideas.

These ordinary ideas (in a national context) are to produce new heroes internally, our farmers as food microbarons, and externally, our Overseas Filipino Workers (OFWs), as a critical dollar source, and tourist ambassadors. Because to shield the country from the “imported inflation” of food and oil, the peso must appreciate. We must become food self-reliant, and expand our dollar reserves, and become famous as Asia's best tourist destination (as a means to court even more dollars and help local economies).

PRODUCE NEW HEROES INTERNALLY

Meeting our country's rice import deficit is a harvest away. But while Cambodia and Thailand are already lifting export bans, our goal of food self-reliance remains. The farmers must become our new heroes. But they need support.

Basic systems are necessary to stimulate increased productivity: concessional financing, seed and fertilizer subsidies, agricultural mapping and planning, irrigation systems, farm to market roads and bridges, and surplus incentives.

Our 8-9 million farmers can obtain fair price for their produce, if Government eventually allows them to set prices according to international market movements. However safeguarding the urban poor's (and the vocal urban electorate) interests against the farmer's, is a challenge. But definitely, the global terms of trade for rice and corn farmers must shift to the countryside.

MORE HEROES EXTERNALLY

OFW remittances are crucial in building our dollar reserves. Annual OFW deployment goals can be officialized – targeting plus 20% annually: 1MM in 2007, 1,2MM in 2008, and so on. The social cost however, should be recognized and seriously addressed.

Through the Department of Tourism and private sector marketing seminars, full-time OFWs can become part-time Tourist Ambassadors, inviting tourists to visit or invest in the Philippines. Their efforts could be supported by private sector initiatives like Cebu Pacific's “Budget fares” - offering USD9.99 or Euro9.99 to Chinese, Taiwanese, or Korean tourists, perhaps. Clark is crucial as an 'open skies' budget airlines hub.

The ordinary idea that needs exceptional execution is for the Philippines to become a new tourist haven: whether for investments or “sun and charm.”

ECCLESIASTES 3:1-8

It's gloomy, but as the Byrds put it in 1965: To everything/There is a season/And a time for every purpose... We will prevail. We always have.

 

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